Current US Recession Outlook

As of December 1, 2025, the US economy shows mixed signals but no confirmed recession. Manufacturing PMI data indicates slight contraction in some sectors (e.g., China & Eurozone manufacturing PMIs below 50), but the US manufacturing PMI remains just above contraction territory at 51.9 (forecast), with previous at 52.5. Consumer spending is slowing, & consumer confidence is low, but labor market data shows some resilience.

Federal Reserve officials are signaling potential rate cuts in December, reflecting concerns about economic growth & inflation easing. However, risks remain from trade tensions & global economic uncertainties.

Overall, the market & economic data suggest caution but not an imminent recession as of this date.

S&P 500 (SPX500/USD) Status

Price Level: The S&P 500 index is trading around 6804.2 (SPX500/USD) with a closing price near 6825 as of November 30, 2025.

Technical Analysis:

• Most moving averages (EMA & SMA for 10, 20, 30, 50, 100, 200 days) indicate a long (bullish) trend.
• Some momentum indicators like RSI, CCI, Williams, & ADX show short (bearish) or neutral signals, suggesting mixed momentum.
• MACD & Momentum indicators remain long, supporting ongoing upward momentum.
• The 9/13 count signal is sell, indicating caution.
• VWAP (20) is short, & Ichimoku is neutral, reflecting some short-term pressure.

Market Sentiment: The S&P 500 shows signs of exhaustion after a strong rally, with Elliott Wave analysis suggesting the final wave completion is near & a correction likely in Q1 2026. Defensive positioning & preparation for a significant correction are recommended.

Support & Resistance: Key support levels are around 6500-6200, with resistance near 6900-7000. A break below support could trigger a correction.

Market Context & Outlook

• US stock futures declined in early Asian trading due to hawkish Bank of Japan signals & weak Chinese PMI data, increasing risk aversion.
• Despite recent volatility, the S&P 500 is up approximately 15% year-to-date, supported by optimism over Federal Reserve rate cuts.
• Concerns remain over stretched valuations in tech & geopolitical risks, but the market is currently consolidating above key moving averages.
• Upcoming economic data releases (ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP Employment, PCE inflation) & Federal Reserve communications will be critical for market direction.

Summary

As of December 1, 2025, the US is not officially in a recession, but economic indicators show caution with some sectors contracting & consumer confidence weakening. The S&P 500 remains in a bullish technical phase but shows signs of potential near-term correction. Market participants should prepare for volatility & closely monitor upcoming economic data & central bank signals.