US Recession Outlook

Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%, up from 20%, primarily due to concerns surrounding new tariffs & their potential impact on inflation & economic growth【4:5†source】. The market is currently facing significant volatility, with the S&P 500 down 4.6% in the first quarter, marking its worst performance in three years【4:14†source】.

Impact on SPX500

The S&P 500 index has been under pressure, reflecting investor anxiety over the upcoming tariff announcements & their implications for corporate margins & inflation【4:18†source】. The index closed at approximately 5,611.85, with a recommendation to hold positions as the market navigates through this turbulent period【4:15†source】.

Market Sentiment

Investor sentiment is bearish, with concerns about stagflation rising as the Federal Reserve has downgraded its GDP growth forecast【4:19†source】. The upcoming "Liberation Day" tariffs are expected to further complicate the economic landscape, potentially leading to a broader trade conflict【4:19†source】.

Conclusion

As the U.S. economy faces increasing recession risks & the SPX500 continues to show weakness, investors are advised to remain cautious & monitor economic indicators closely. The market's reaction to upcoming tariff announcements will be crucial in shaping the near-term outlook.