US Recession Outlook

The US economy shows mixed signals as of today. The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell & other officials have expressed caution about further cuts, citing persistent inflation & economic uncertainties. The labor market remains balanced, & recession risks are not currently the primary concern, though economic data is limited due to a government shutdown.

Market sentiment is cautious with divided views within the Fed, & the US Dollar Index is strong near 100.257, reflecting skepticism about aggressive easing. Treasury yields have stabilized around 4.10% for the 10-year note, indicating moderate confidence in economic growth.

Overall, while some economic contraction was seen earlier in 2025, the outlook does not strongly indicate an imminent recession, but vigilance is warranted given mixed data & geopolitical uncertainties.

S&P 500 (SPX500/USD) Technical & Market Status

Current Price: 6,852.7

The S&P 500 is in the late stages of a major Elliott Wave impulsive sequence, likely completing Wave 3 or entering early Wave 4. The key resistance zone is near 7,000-7,200 points, where a corrective pullback of 10-20% is expected before a final Wave 5 push toward 7,800-8,200+.

Technical indicators show mixed signals:

Indicator	Status	Interpretation
RSI (Daily/Weekly/Monthly)	Bearish Divergence	Weakening buying pressure, potential exhaustion
Candlestick Patterns	Upper wicks, small bodies	Distribution & selling pressure near highs
Fibonacci Support Levels	6,600 / 6,400 / 6,200 / 6,000	Key retracement zones for potential pullback
Moving Averages (EMA/SMA 10-200)	Mostly Long	Overall uptrend maintained
Momentum Indicators (MACD, ADX, Momentum)	Positive	Underlying bullish momentum remains
Short-term Signals (HULL, VWAP, Stochastic RSI)	Mixed	Short-term caution advised

Seasonality suggests November is historically strong but may see profit-taking after a strong October rally. A corrective phase (Wave 4) is likely imminent, with potential pullback targets between 6,200 & 6,400 points. Traders should watch for rejection near 7,000-7,200 & manage risk accordingly.

Summary & Outlook

The US economy is not currently in recession but faces uncertainties with cautious Fed policy & mixed economic data. The S&P 500 remains in a bullish long-term trend but shows signs of near-term exhaustion & a probable corrective pullback. This correction should be viewed as a buying opportunity for longer-term investors, with careful risk management advised.