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1. Market Overview and Equity Movements
U.S. equity markets have experienced mixed performance recently. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached new all-time highs, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed lower on February 10, 2026. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 faced pressure from technology and financial sectors, influenced by concerns over artificial intelligence (AI) impacts and rising loan delinquencies.
Trading volumes in U.S. equities have surged, with daily share turnover surpassing $1 trillion, a roughly 50% increase from the previous year, reflecting heightened participation from both retail and institutional investors. However, this surge occurs amid concerns about stretched valuations, increasing risk for market participants.
European equities maintained modest gains, with the Stoxx 600 near record highs, though upside potential appears limited due to cautious investor reactions to earnings and guidance. Asian markets, particularly Japan, surged with the Nikkei 225 reaching record levels following political developments.
| Index | Change | % Change | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials | +52.27 | +0.10% | 50,188 |
| S&P 500 | -23.04 | -0.33% | 6,941 |
| Nasdaq | -136.20 | -0.59% | 23,102 |
| Russell 2000 | -9.28 | -0.34% | 2,679 |
Investors are closely watching upcoming U.S. economic data, especially the January nonfarm payroll report, with expectations of 70,000 new jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 4.4%. Retail sales data for December showed no growth, below expectations, signaling slower economic momentum.
Equity Markets
US equity markets show mixed but generally resilient performance amid evolving macroeconomic signals:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average has appreciated about 4% year-to-date, favoring value stocks over growth, while the S&P 500 rose approximately 1%, and the Nasdaq 100 slightly declined by 0.2%.
- Small-cap stocks, tracked by the Russell 2000, have outperformed with an 8% year-to-date gain, indicating broadening market participation and a rotation towards smaller companies amid declining US interest rates.
- Sector-wise, semiconductors have surged (~17% YTD) driven by AI demand, banking sectors show strength with regional banks up ~12%, and industrials have reached new highs.
- Technical indicators for the Dow Jones remain bullish with aligned moving averages supporting further upside potential.
In Europe, the FTSE 100 reached a fresh record despite disappointing UK GDP growth, led by strong bank sector performance. The UK economy showed soft growth (0.1% Q4), with mixed sector contributions and limited market reaction to the data.
Fixed Income and Currency Markets
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) has weakened to around 96.5, pressured by weak retail sales and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Political tensions around Fed independence add to dollar volatility.
- Japanese Government Bonds rallied following political stability assurances, with the yen recovering against the dollar. USD/JPY faces key resistance levels, with a bearish trend possible if support breaks.
- China's reduction in US Treasury holdings to the lowest since 2008 reflects caution on US debt, contributing to dollar weakness and supporting gold prices.
Commodities and Precious Metals
- Gold leads precious metals with a ~17% year-to-date gain, supported by geopolitical risks, weak US dollar, and expectations of Fed easing. Prices hover above $5,000 per ounce, with technical analysis indicating a mature corrective phase but within a broader bullish cycle.
- Silver and other metals show positive momentum but require key technical breakouts to confirm sustained uptrends.
- Oil prices remain stable with Brent near $69 and WTI consolidating; geopolitical tensions and resilient US fuel demand underpin support despite rising inventories.
Cryptocurrency Market
Bitcoin and Ethereum recently experienced sharp drawdowns but show signs of stabilization:
- Volatility driven by macroeconomic uncertainty, liquidity conditions, and risk appetite shifts.
- Bitcoin acts as a macro proxy, while Ethereum is more sensitive to ecosystem developments and DeFi activity.
- Institutional flows remain cautious, with selective buying in crypto-linked equities but ongoing liquidations in Ether futures.
- Key indicators to watch include macro narratives, market risk sentiment, and capital flows via ETFs and options.
Macroeconomic Factors and Outlook
- US labor market data surprised positively with 130,000 jobs added in January and unemployment falling to 4.3%, exceeding expectations and supporting stable fuel demand.
- Retail sales data disappointed, remaining flat, increasing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2026.
- Political pressures on the Fed and geopolitical tensions, especially involving Iran and Russia, continue to influence market sentiment and risk premiums.
- Global economic dynamics include a K-shaped recovery pattern, AI and US-China geopolitical races, and competition for funding between private and public sectors.
- European growth forecasts remain modest with inflation undershooting expectations, while Japan's political stability supports fiscal expansion and bond market strength.
Technical and Sentiment Highlights
- Gold's Elliott Wave analysis suggests the current rally is near completion with a likely corrective phase ahead, with key support levels between $4,950 and $4,200.
- US equity technicals show bullish alignment in major indices, though volatility remains elevated due to macro uncertainties.
- Digital assets exhibit cautious sentiment with mixed ETF flows and ongoing liquidation pressures in altcoins like Ether.
- Seasonal patterns and behavioral finance models support continued momentum in equities but advise caution amid potential volatility spikes.
Summary Table: Key Market Levels
| Asset | Key Support | Key Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $4,950 - $4,650 | $5,100 - $5,150 |
| Silver (XAG/USD) | $64 | $100 |
| Brent Crude Oil | $66.50 | $72 - $79 |
| WTI Crude Oil | $61.50 | $66.50 - $69 |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 95.55 | 97.00 |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $67,000 | $70,000 |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2,000 | $2,100 |
| Dow Jones | 48,400 | 50,600 |
Conclusion
The current market environment is characterized by a blend of optimism and caution. Strong labor market data and sector-specific strength support equities, while weak retail sales and political pressures fuel expectations of monetary easing, benefiting safe havens like gold. Cryptocurrencies remain volatile but show tentative signs of stabilization. Investors should monitor key economic releases, geopolitical developments, and technical levels across asset classes to navigate the evolving landscape effectively.
Market Overview
US equity futures opened modestly higher following a mixed finish the previous day, buoyed by optimism around trade relations and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later in 2026. The S&P 500 futures rose by 21 points, and Nasdaq futures gained 100 points, reflecting cautious optimism despite strong labor market data that tempered immediate rate cut expectations.
Major indices like the Dow Jones and S&P 500 are showing bullish trends, with the S&P 500 nearing the 7,000-point mark, driven by large-cap technology firms such as Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta. A daily close above 7,000 could lead to new all-time highs, although failure to hold this level may trigger a pullback.
Meanwhile, the labor market remains resilient with January payrolls increasing by 130,000, exceeding expectations, and unemployment rates steady. This strength has reduced the likelihood of near-term Fed rate cuts but has not eliminated the possibility of cuts later in the year, particularly by June.
Sector and Corporate Highlights
- Technology: Large-cap tech stocks lead gains with Nvidia up over 1%, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta each rising around 0.5-0.6%. However, some tech earnings have disappointed, with Amazon shares down 10% recently due to AI-related costs.
- Telecom: T-Mobile US (TMUS) shares fell over 5% after missing subscriber growth targets, though technical analysis suggests potential accumulation opportunities on pullbacks.
- Healthcare: Moderna shares dropped nearly 10% after regulatory setbacks, while Gilead Sciences and Kraft Heinz also saw declines due to earnings misses and strategic changes.
- Semiconductors: STMicroelectronics surged over 8% following a major partnership expansion with Amazon Web Services, positioning it as a key supplier for AWS infrastructure.
- Consumer Goods: McDonald's and Cisco beat earnings expectations, with Cisco raising guidance and increasing dividends.
- Automotive: Ford showed minor gains despite a disappointing Q4, while Mercedes-Benz reported a 57% drop in operating profit due to tariffs and competition.
Commodities and Currencies
Precious metals have shown mixed performance: silver confirmed a bullish reversal, breaking above $83.78 and reclaiming its 50-day moving average, while gold pulled back slightly, trading below $5,100 per ounce. Natural gas prices are under pressure, nearing recent lows, with a bearish short-term outlook.
Oil prices remain supported by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns, with WTI crude trading around $64.30 and Brent crude near $69.05. Technical analysis suggests buying opportunities near support levels with targets slightly higher.
The US Dollar has rebounded from earlier lows following strong nonfarm payroll data, with key resistance and support levels identified ahead of upcoming CPI reports. The British Pound showed slight gains despite UK economic stagnation, while the Canadian Dollar remains stable with expectations of gradual appreciation.
Fixed Income and Bonds
US Treasury yields have decreased slightly, with the 30-year bond closing at 116.796. Technical indicators for the 30-year bond suggest a bullish outlook with multiple moving averages signaling long positions. The 2-year bond shows mixed signals but remains generally supported by short-term moving averages.
Cryptocurrency Market
XRP has experienced a decline below $1.4, pressured by strong US jobs data that reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts, negatively impacting crypto sentiment. Despite this, XRP-spot ETFs have seen $1.23 billion in inflows, indicating rising institutional demand. Technical analysis shows bearish momentum below key moving averages, with support at $1.0 and medium-term price targets of $2.5 to $3.0.
Bitcoin has stabilized above $67,000 after a recent sell-off, while Ethereum is rebounding after dipping below $2,000. Regulatory and legislative developments, including delays in the US Market Structure Bill, continue to influence crypto market dynamics.
Political and Economic Developments
The US House of Representatives voted to lift tariffs imposed on Canada, signaling bipartisan efforts to challenge executive trade authority, though Senate approval and presidential signature are pending. Trade optimism is also supported by potential extensions of the US-China trade war truce, with an anticipated meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping in April.
US budget deficit decreased in January due to a surge in tariff revenues, though rising debt servicing costs and the absence of rapid interest rate cuts continue to pressure public finances. The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariffs poses risks to future revenue collections.
Upcoming Key Events
- US January Nonfarm Payrolls report (expected increase to 70,000 payrolls, steady unemployment at 4.4%)
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US Existing Home Sales for January
- IEA Monthly Oil Market Report
- Japan PPI and UK GDP preliminary data releases
Summary
The US market on February 12, 2026, is characterized by cautious optimism amid strong labor data, mixed corporate earnings, and geopolitical developments. Technology and semiconductor sectors lead gains, while fixed income and commodities reflect ongoing global uncertainties. Cryptocurrency markets face pressure from macroeconomic factors but show signs of institutional interest. Investors are advised to monitor upcoming economic data and legislative developments closely as they will shape market direction in the near term.
Indices
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): Reached a new all-time high at 50,188, up 0.10%. The Dow showed resilience despite mixed market conditions.
- S&P 500: Closed lower at 6,941, down 0.33%, pressured by financials and technology sectors.
- Nasdaq: Fell 0.59% to 23,102, with technology stocks facing declines.
- Russell 2000: Down 0.34% to 2,679.
Sector Highlights
- Utilities, Materials, and REITs: Leading sectors with positive performance.
- Financials: Declined due to AI-related fears and rising loan delinquencies; household debt delinquencies hit 4.8%, highest since 2017.
- Technology: Faced pressure amid earnings concerns and AI disruption fears.
- Consumer Sector: Kroger shares rose on new CEO announcement; Hasbro reported strong Q4 earnings; Under Armour downgraded due to competition.
- Energy & Industrials: RIG announced acquisition of Valaris; Advent International consortium to acquire InPost for over $9 billion.
- Biotech & Pharma: HIMS shares fell due to regulatory scrutiny; Eli Lilly acquired Orna Therapeutics for up to $2.4 billion.
Key Stock Movements
- Kering SA (KER.FR): Shares surged 7.63% to €281.
- Ferrari NV (RACE.IT): Shares jumped 9.03% to €310.2.
- Cloudflare: Posted positive EPS and sales surprises; raised 2026 revenue outlook; shares up over 12% including after-hours.
- Ford Motor: Reported Q4 adjusted EPS miss and net loss due to EV program write-downs; guided for improved EBIT and free cash flow in 2026.
- Amazon: Stock declined after warning on AI infrastructure spending; disclosed stake in Beta Technologies.
- Altruist: Launched AI tax planning tool, causing declines in traditional tax planning and wealth management stocks like Raymond James, Charles Schwab, and LPL Financial.
Commodities and Currencies
- Gold: Prices steady above $5,000 per ounce, rebounding due to dip-buying and softer dollar.
- Silver: Recovered from six-week lows, supported by safe-haven demand.
- Crude Oil: US crude near $63.96 per barrel, influenced by US-Iran tensions and diplomatic hopes.
- USD: Weakened against major currencies; US Dollar Index fell 0.82% to 96.81.
- USD/JPY: Yen strengthened following Japanese election results favoring fiscal expansion.
Economic Data and Outlook
- Retail sales for December showed no growth, below expectations, signaling slower economic momentum.
- January Nonfarm Payroll report expected tomorrow with 70,000 new jobs forecast and unemployment steady at 4.4%.
- Household debt increased by $191 billion in Q4 2025, with worsening delinquency rates, especially in mortgages and student loans.
- Foreign investment in emerging markets hit a record $99 billion in January.
Market Sentiment
Markets are cautious ahead of key US employment data. Technology and financial sectors face pressure from AI disruption fears and rising delinquencies, while commodities and safe-haven assets like gold show strength amid geopolitical tensions.