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1. Global Market Overview and Trade Policy Uncertainty
Global financial markets are currently navigating heightened volatility driven by escalating trade tensions, particularly the U.S. administration's tariff policies. Following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down previous emergency tariffs, President Trump announced a temporary blanket 15% tariff on global imports, intensifying uncertainty in trade policy and impacting investor sentiment worldwide.
- U.S. Equities: Major U.S. indices experienced declines with the Dow Jones down 1.66%, S&P 500 down 1.04%, and Nasdaq Composite down 1.13%, pressured by tariff concerns and geopolitical tensions.
- European and Asian Markets: European stocks reached record highs buoyed by positive economic data and easing trade fears, while Asian markets showed mixed results with South Korea and Taiwan gaining, but Hong Kong declining due to tech sector weakness and geopolitical worries.
- Volatility: The VIX index rose above 21, reflecting increased market uncertainty but not panic, as investors seek protection amid tariff and geopolitical risks.
- Currency Movements: The U.S. dollar weakened against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, while the euro and sterling gained slightly. The yen weakened following Japan's inflation slowdown and political stance against Bank of Japan rate hikes.
Investors remain cautious as trade policy ambiguity and geopolitical developments, including U.S.-Iran tensions, continue to influence market dynamics.
2. Commodities and Safe-Haven Assets
- Gold and Silver: Gold prices surged over 2%, reaching around $5,200 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand amid tariff shocks and geopolitical risks. Silver broke out from a prolonged compression pattern, with bullish momentum targeting resistance levels near $92 and potentially higher towards previous highs around $121.66. Technical indicators suggest cautious optimism for further gains in precious metals.
- Oil Prices: Brent crude oil hovered near six-month highs around $71.50 per barrel, supported by geopolitical tensions involving the U.S. and Iran and concerns over the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. crude inventories declined significantly, indicating strong demand, though tariff escalation clouds the demand outlook.
- Copper: Copper prices showed gradual strength, supported by demand for hard assets despite equity market weakness, with key resistance levels to watch for potential further upside.
3. Currency and Forex Market Highlights
- USD/JPY: The pair traded within a symmetrical triangle, recently bouncing off support near 152.20 and testing resistance around 156.00. The yen weakened due to Japan's inflation cooling below 2% and political signals favoring economic growth over rate hikes.
- EUR/USD: The euro gained momentum after bouncing off support at $1.1740, testing resistance near $1.1860, with potential targets at $1.1925 and $1.1985.
- AUD/USD: The Australian dollar faced selling pressure at the 200-hour moving average (~0.7068) but showed resilience with support near 0.7016. Inflation data from Australia was stronger than expected, reducing expectations for aggressive Reserve Bank easing.
4. U.S. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Outlook
Recent U.S. economic data revealed a slowdown in GDP growth to 1.4% in Q4 2025, below forecasts, alongside persistent core inflation pressures. The labor market remains resilient with declining jobless claims. Market expectations now price in two potential Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, starting in June, influenced by the "slowing growth + sticky inflation" scenario.
Upcoming key indicators include the Consumer Confidence Index and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, which will be closely watched for signs of economic resilience or further slowdown.
5. Corporate Earnings and Sector Performance
- Notable Earnings: Home Depot reported better-than-expected Q4 results, boosting its shares. Nvidia's earnings report, due February 25, is highly anticipated given its pivotal role in AI and market influence. Analysts expect strong revenue and earnings growth, with Nvidia's performance potentially impacting broader market sentiment.
- Sector Movers: Technology and semiconductor stocks showed mixed performance amid AI disruption concerns. AMD secured a major AI chip deal with Meta, potentially worth double-digit billions, boosting its shares by over 14%. Financials and software sectors faced pressure, while defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples showed resilience.
- Investor Activity: Prominent investors such as Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio reduced stakes in Apple, while institutions like BlackRock increased holdings. Apple continues to focus on supply chain diversification and AI innovation despite competitive pressures from Samsung.
6. Cryptocurrency Market Developments
- Bitcoin: Trading above $67,500 but pressured by rate uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, continues a "catching falling knives" strategy, accumulating Bitcoin during price dips.
- Ethereum: Facing bearish pressure with prices near $1,850, influenced by founder Vitalik Buterin's announced ETH sales to fund ecosystem projects. Increased selling activity has added to the negative sentiment.
- Digital Asset Flows: Bitcoin ETFs continue to see net inflows, while Ethereum flows are mixed, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment in crypto markets.
7. Geopolitical and Trade Developments
- U.S.-Iran tensions remain elevated with potential limited airstrikes under consideration and ongoing nuclear negotiations in Geneva, which could be the last diplomatic opportunity before military action.
- Iran signed a €500 million deal with Russia for air defense systems and missiles, with deliveries planned from 2027 to 2029.
- EU-US trade agreement ratification has been suspended by Members of the European Parliament, causing market uncertainty and impacting stocks such as Novo Nordisk.
8. Investment Risks and Warnings
Trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs) remains highly risky, with approximately 71% of retail clients losing money on such platforms. The leverage inherent in CFDs can amplify losses quickly. Potential traders are urged to fully understand the products, assess their financial situation, and consider risk tolerance before engaging in CFD trading.
Summary and Outlook
The current financial landscape is marked by significant uncertainty from trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, and evolving economic data. Safe-haven assets like gold and silver are benefiting, while risk assets face pressure. Key upcoming events include Nvidia's earnings report and U.S. economic releases, which may act as catalysts for market direction. Investors are advised to remain vigilant, monitor technical levels across asset classes, and manage risk carefully in this volatile environment.
Global Market Overview
Markets are navigating a complex environment marked by heightened volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, tariff policy shifts, and evolving macroeconomic data. The recent Supreme Court ruling limiting presidential tariff powers has introduced both relief and uncertainty, as new tariff strategies are being implemented under Section 122, raising tariffs to 15% temporarily. This has led to cautious sentiment across asset classes, with risk assets experiencing pressure while safe havens gain appeal.
Equity Markets
U.S. equities faced significant declines following tariff escalations, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.66%, S&P 500 down 1.04%, and Nasdaq Composite down 1.13%. Key tech stocks, especially those exposed to AI disruption fears, saw notable sell-offs, including IBM (-13%) and Salesforce (-5.25%). However, a rebound in software and SaaS sectors emerged after positive developments from AI startup Anthropic, which alleviated fears of AI replacing existing enterprise tools. The Nasdaq 100 showed a 1% recovery, supported by strong earnings expectations from Nvidia and AMD's major AI-related deal with Meta.
Highlights:
- Tech sector volatility driven by AI disruption concerns and tariff uncertainty.
- Rotation into semiconductor stocks like SK Hynix, Samsung, and TSMC as AI investment continues.
- Home Depot and Walmart showed resilience with positive earnings and dividends.
European markets resumed upward momentum, buoyed by Asian gains and a weaker yen, with the DAX and FTSE 100 reaching new highs. The UK market has risen for five consecutive weeks, supported by strong mining sector performance.
Fixed Income and Currency Markets
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) weakened, pulling back from resistance near 98 to around 96.8, influenced by tariff policy uncertainty and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year. The Chinese yuan strengthened significantly against the U.S. dollar, reaching its highest level since 2023, supported by China's reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings and tariff cancellations. Asian currencies also rallied, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index up 1.5% to record highs.
The Japanese yen weakened amid fading expectations for Bank of Japan rate hikes, with USD/JPY rebounding to 156.3. Political developments in Japan and export restrictions from China have added to yen volatility.
Commodities
Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have shown strength amid tariff and geopolitical uncertainties. Gold prices surged above $5,200, supported by safe-haven demand and expectations of Fed rate cuts. Silver experienced a breakout after a correction period but showed some recent price declines, reflecting mixed investor sentiment.
Crude oil prices remain volatile, influenced by geopolitical tensions and upcoming U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. WTI crude trades near $65.9, with technical resistance around $66.7-$67.3. Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent and WTI prices to rise by $6 in Q4 2026, contingent on supply disruptions related to Iran. However, bearish inventory data and global supply exceeding demand cap upside potential.
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin is under pressure amid risk-off sentiment and tariff uncertainties, trading around $65,000. The BTC/XAU ratio has fallen sharply, marking Bitcoin as historically oversold versus gold. Despite this, geopolitical risks and AI sector downturns weigh on recovery prospects. Technical indicators suggest a potential bottoming pattern, but macroeconomic headwinds remain significant.
Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors
Key macro drivers include the U.S. Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts, ongoing trade policy shifts following the Supreme Court ruling, and geopolitical developments such as U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations. President Trump's tariff increases and the legal challenges surrounding them continue to inject uncertainty. Meanwhile, AI adoption impacts labor markets and business sectors unevenly, with some industries facing headwinds while others, like semiconductors and cloud computing, benefit.
Japan's political landscape, with the Liberal Democratic Party's strong election victory, is expected to support expansionary fiscal policy and bolster USD/JPY. In Europe, growth forecasts remain moderate with inflation undershooting, influencing ECB rate cut expectations.
Outlook and Investment Considerations
Investors should maintain diversification and disciplined risk management amid ongoing volatility. Key upcoming events include earnings reports from Nvidia, Home Depot, and other tech leaders, as well as economic data releases such as U.S. consumer confidence and manufacturing surveys. Monitoring tariff developments and geopolitical negotiations will be critical for positioning across equities, fixed income, currencies, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.
Technical analysis suggests caution in precious metals, with gold nearing resistance zones and potential corrective phases ahead. Equities may see selective strength in AI-related sectors, while risk assets remain sensitive to policy shifts and macroeconomic data.
Market Performance and Sentiment
On February 25, 2026, US equity markets rebounded from recent declines, driven by easing fears around artificial intelligence (AI) job displacement and anticipation of President Trump's State of the Union address. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.76%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.77%, and the Nasdaq 100 climbed by 1.05%, with technology stocks leading the gains. The semiconductor sector notably benefited from renewed optimism following new AI plug-ins launched by Anthropic, boosting software and services indices.
Key Market Drivers
- AI Developments: The launch of new AI enterprise capabilities by Anthropic has alleviated market concerns about AI's disruptive impact on employment, supporting a risk-on sentiment.
- Currency Movements: The Japanese yen weakened to around 156 per US dollar, influenced by dovish signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the nomination of reflationary candidates to its board. The US dollar saw slight declines against major currencies.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing US-Iran tensions and potential military actions remain a risk factor, impacting oil prices and market volatility.
- Tariff Developments: President Trump's new 15% global tariff, following a Supreme Court ruling, has introduced uncertainty and legal challenges, affecting trade relations and market sentiment.
Technical Market Analysis
Technical indicators suggest a cautiously bullish outlook for US stock futures:
- Dow Jones: Trading above key moving averages with resistance near the February 10 record high of 50,611 and support at the 50-day EMA around 49,080.
- Nasdaq 100: Below its 50-day EMA indicating short-term bearishness but above the 200-day EMA, supporting a longer-term bullish trend.
- S&P 500: Trading above its 50-day EMA with resistance at 7,000 and support near 6,903.
Major Economic Indicators
- US Consumer Confidence rose to 91.2 in February, signaling economic resilience.
- The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed a 1.4% year-over-year increase, indicating a cooling housing market.
- US private sector job growth accelerated, averaging 12,750 new jobs per week.
Sector Highlights and Corporate Earnings
- Technology: Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is highly anticipated. AMD shares surged 8.8% after securing a $60 billion AI chip deal with Meta. Intel is investing in AI startup SambaNova.
- Consumer: Home Depot reported a slight revenue decline but raised its dividend, with shares up 2.0%.
- Energy: Diamondback Energy increased its dividend and provided production guidance. Oil prices remain near seven-month highs, with Brent crude around $71 per barrel.
- Financials: Mixed earnings with Brighthouse Financial missing EPS estimates, while EverQuote exceeded expectations.
- Healthcare: BioMarin's revenue growth driven by new patient initiations.
Commodities and Currency Markets
- Gold and Silver: Prices surged as investors sought safe havens amid tariff and geopolitical uncertainties, with gold reaching over $5,200 per ounce.
- Oil: Brent crude near $71.49 per barrel, influenced by US-Iran tensions and geopolitical risks.
- US Dollar: Slight weakening against the yen and other major currencies, affected by tariff uncertainties and mixed economic data.
Fixed Income and Bonds
US Treasury yields show mixed signals with the 30-year bond trading around 118.04, technical indicators mostly bullish but with some short-term momentum caution. The 5-year and 2-year bonds also show predominantly bullish technical setups, reflecting cautious optimism in fixed income markets.
Risks and Outlook
The short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish, supported by expectations of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 and a dovish Bank of Japan stance. However, risks include:
- Geopolitical tensions, especially potential US-Iran conflict escalation.
- Uncertainty and legal challenges around new US tariffs impacting trade and corporate earnings.
- Potential shifts in US economic data that could alter Fed rate cut expectations.
Conclusion
US markets are navigating a complex environment shaped by AI optimism, tariff uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and mixed economic data. Investors are advised to monitor key technical levels, upcoming earnings reports, and macroeconomic indicators closely to adjust strategies accordingly.
NVDA (Nvidia)
- Market focus is on Nvidia's earnings report after market close, expected to influence volatility due to its AI sector role.
- Nvidia has shown 10 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth, with some quarters showing triple- and quadruple-digit growth.
- Strong earnings could reset the AI trade and dispel bubble concerns.
- Other software companies like Snowflake and Synopsys also report after close amid AI disruption fears.
HD (Home Depot)
- Reported better-than-expected Q4 results, boosting its stock.
- Raised its dividend despite a slight revenue decline.
AMD
- Shares rose 7% after a $60 billion AI chip deal with Meta.
INTU (Intuit)
- Shares gained 3% following partnership with AI company Anthropic.
KEYS (Keysight Technologies)
- Shares surged 19% after strong Q1 results.
LRMR (Larimar Therapeutics)
- Shares jumped 34% after receiving FDA breakthrough designation.
Financial Sector
- Brighthouse Financial missed EPS estimates; EverQuote exceeded expectations.
- Crypto stocks under pressure due to trade turmoil; Bitcoin declined below $65,000 but stabilized around $65,500.
Technology Sector
- Intel investing in AI chip startup SambaNova.
- Oracle upgraded to Outperform by Oppenheimer.
- Alphabet received an upgrade from Wells Fargo.
- AppLovin under SEC investigation.
- Airgain secured a 5G connectivity platform contract.
Consumer Sector
- Domino's Pizza reported Q4 earnings slightly below expectations but increased quarterly dividend by 15%.
- VF Corp downgraded by JP Morgan.
- Lowe's beat EPS expectations but guided FY27 EPS below consensus.
Energy Sector
- Diamondback Energy raised its annual dividend and provided production guidance.
- Chevron exploring takeover of Iraq's West Qurna 2 oil field.
- EOG Resources reported strong Q4 EPS; First Solar missed expectations.
- Matador Resources and Range Resources reported mixed earnings.
Healthcare Sector
- BioMarin's revenue growth driven by new patient initiations.
- Gilead Sciences acquired Arcellx.
- Merck plans to split its human health business into two divisions.
- Jazz Pharma exceeded Q4 EPS expectations.
- Novo Nordisk shares fell after obesity drug failed key endpoints.
- BridgeBio Pharma missed Q4 EPS estimates.
Market Overview & Sentiment
- Equity futures indicate a higher open following a broad market rebound.
- Technology sector led gains, especially software and chipmakers.
- Consumer discretionary and industrials performed well; healthcare faced losses.
- Asian and European markets showed strength; Nikkei and Kospi at record highs.
- Investor sentiment improved with increased buying activity.
- Geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainties remain key risks.
Key Economic Data
- Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.2, beating estimates.
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index declined to -10 in February.
- Wholesale inventories unchanged at +0.2%.
- FHFA House Price Index rose less than expected; Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose more than forecast.
- Australia's CPI higher than expected, supporting currency strength.
- US Treasury to sell $69B in 2-year notes today.
Geopolitical & Other News
- President Trump scheduled to deliver State of the Union address today.
- Trump increased global tariffs from 10% to 15%, creating market uncertainty.
- US and Iran negotiations ongoing; potential for military escalation remains.
- Gold prices rose to highest in three weeks; oil prices declined on demand concerns.
- EUR/JPY and US natural gas futures near key technical levels.