Market Summary - November 3, 2026
Overview
On November 3, 2026, U.S. markets opened with optimism as the midterm elections approached. The S&P 500 rose approximately 0.5%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained around 0.9%, recovering some losses from the previous day. A significant factor contributing to this positive sentiment was the decline in crude oil prices.
Oil Prices and Market Sentiment
Brent crude oil prices fell from around $107 per barrel to approximately $102 per barrel, influenced by reports of a draft memorandum from Qatari mediators suggesting potential de-escalation in tensions. This decline in oil prices helped boost market confidence.
Political Landscape
Prediction markets indicated a 95% probability of Democrats gaining control of the House of Representatives and a 75% chance of securing the Senate. A Democratic victory in both chambers is viewed as favorable for the equity market, particularly for companies involved in the AI sector.
Historically, the S&P 500 has shown resilience post-elections, with no negative returns recorded 120 trading days after elections over the last 19 cycles, averaging a 13% return.
Geopolitical Developments
Despite initial market dampening due to U.S. strikes on Iranian positions, the delivery of a draft memorandum by Qatar to Iran and a signal from the Iranian President for negotiations provided a glimmer of hope for easing tensions. Market reactions to news from Doha or Tehran are expected to be significant.
Technology Sector Performance
The semiconductor index (SOXX) rebounded by 3.4% after a recent 10% correction. The Nasdaq 100 also performed well, gaining 1%, although it was weighed down by Apple, which fell 2.9% following disappointing Q3 results, particularly in revenue from China. Palantir also saw a decline of 1.3% due to concerns over slowing sales growth.
Macroeconomic Data
Preliminary ISM PMI figures for October showed the manufacturing index at 55.5 and the services index at 54.9, aligning with GDP growth expectations of approximately 3.7% annualized for Q4. Additionally, job openings rose to 7.52 million in September, surpassing expectations.
Corporate News Highlights
- Apple (AAPL.US): -2.9%, missed key metrics in Q3 report.
- Palantir (PLTR.US): -1.3%, guidance suggests potential sales growth slowdown.
- Shopify (SHOP.US): -8.4%, first miss in subscription revenue expectations in four years.
- Walt Disney (DIS.US): -0.2%, reports of significant layoffs as part of cost-saving measures.