FX PULSE

Dollar tone remains firm, but policy uncertainty is capping conviction

Persistent US inflation supports a restrictive Fed backdrop, while softer hike expectations and lower yields limit further dollar upside. Yen intervention risk and upcoming central-bank decisions keep major FX ranges tactically sensitive.

FX Drivers What Matters Now

USD / RATES

US inflation keeps dollar support asymmetric

Persistent price pressure favors a firm USD bias, but easing expectations for additional Fed tightening reduce follow-through.

JPY / POLICY

Yen weakness remains constrained near intervention-sensitive levels

USD/JPY consolidation reflects competing forces from the US-Japan rate gap, possible BoJ tightening, and intervention risk.

EUR / USD

Euro remains neutral to cautiously bearish

EUR/USD lacks a decisive catalyst as relative rates and broader dollar direction continue to dominate near-term pricing.

GBP / USD

Sterling recovery has improved, conviction remains conditional

Better UK activity and softer Treasury yields support GBP/USD, but the rebound remains exposed to renewed US rate repricing.

COMMODITY FX

Energy volatility remains relevant for CAD and broader risk FX

Geopolitical supply concerns support oil sensitivity, while USD/CAD technical exhaustion leaves the near-term direction mixed.