SpaceX Earnings Preview: Can AI Revenue and Starlink Growth Deliver Its First Post-IPO Profit?
Author: Daniel Carter
Date: October 19, 2026
Key Takeaways
- SpaceX is set to report its third-quarter results on October 20, 2026, with expectations of significant revenue growth.
- Wall Street anticipates revenue of approximately $12.8 billion, a 64% increase year-over-year, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) between $0.13 and $0.16.
- AI revenue is projected to reach around $6 billion, potentially surpassing Starlink as SpaceX's largest revenue source for the first time.
- Starlink is expected to generate connectivity revenue of approximately $4.5 billion to $4.8 billion, remaining a key profit driver.
- Investors will focus on capital expenditure, cash burn, and customer concentration to assess the sustainability of AI expansion.
Upcoming Earnings Report
SpaceX will release its financial results after the market closes on October 20, followed by an earnings call at 4:30 p.m. ET. This will be the company's second quarterly earnings report since its IPO in June.
Q3 Earnings Forecast
Analysts predict a sharp increase in revenue driven by new AI cloud-service contracts:
| Metric | Q3 2026 Forecast | Q2 2026 Result |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $12.8 billion–$12.9 billion | $7.81 billion |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.13–$0.16 | Loss of $0.09 |
| AI Revenue | Approximately $6.0 billion–$6.5 billion | $2.56 billion |
| Connectivity Revenue | Approximately $4.5 billion–$4.8 billion | $4.29 billion |
| Space Revenue | Approximately $1 billion | $962 million |
AI Revenue Growth
AI is expected to be the primary driver of SpaceX's growth, with estimates suggesting that AI revenue could nearly triple from the previous quarter. The AI segment includes Grok products, advertising, and data-center computing capacity sales.
Contracts Driving AI Expansion
SpaceX has secured significant cloud-service contracts, including a $14.1 billion backlog from the previous quarter and an additional $6.7 billion in new contracts. Major clients include Google and Anthropic, which are utilizing SpaceX's infrastructure for AI model training.
Starlink's Role
Starlink continues to be a reliable profit generator, with expected connectivity revenue growth and a substantial increase in subscribers. The company aims to expand its market presence, particularly in aviation and government sectors.
Capital Expenditure Concerns
SpaceX's aggressive capital spending poses risks, with second-quarter expenditures reaching $18.37 billion. Analysts predict that third-quarter capital expenditure could rise further, potentially leading to negative free cash flow despite anticipated profitability.
Future Outlook
Management's guidance on achieving a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by December will be closely monitored. The third-quarter results will indicate whether SpaceX is on track to meet this ambitious target.
Investor Considerations
Investors will be keen to hear about:
- AI revenue surpassing Starlink revenue
- Operating profitability of the AI division
- Starlink subscriber growth
- Capital expenditure projections for 2027
- Updates on Starship missions and satellite launches
Conclusion
SpaceX is poised to report its first positive quarterly EPS as a public company, driven by strong AI and Starlink performance. However, the challenge remains in converting revenue growth into sustainable cash generation amidst rising capital expenditures.