Economic Calendar Summary - October 13, 2026

Key Takeaways

• The US earnings season kicks off with major banks like JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs reporting their results.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are raising risk premiums in the crude oil market due to flight suspensions.
• Japan's producer price index (PPI) shows a deceleration to 6.8% year-on-year in September.
• The US500 index is reaching high levels without confirmation from financial sector leaders, indicating a divergence warning.
• MACD indicators are showing a shrinking histogram, signaling negative momentum divergence similar to past pullbacks.

Market Overview

Today's trading session is primarily focused on the commencement of the quarterly earnings publication season in the US. Investors will be looking for insights from major financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, to gauge the health of the banking sector and consumer resilience amidst ongoing high interest rates.

Simultaneously, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains a significant factor affecting market dynamics. Reports of flight suspensions by airlines such as Etihad and Qatar Airways are raising concerns about potential escalations in the conflict, which is reflected in increased risk premiums in the crude oil market.

In Australia, hawkish minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) indicate a need for prolonged suppression of domestic demand to control inflation, despite a notable decline in local business sentiment. Meanwhile, Japan's PPI data shows a slowdown in producer price dynamics, easing inflationary pressures and reducing the urgency for rapid rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.

Key Economic Releases

• Japan: PPI YoY for September: 6.8% (consensus: 7.6%; previous: 7.6%).
• Japan: Bank Lending YoY for September: 5.3% (consensus: 5.5%; previous: 5.3%).
• Australia: NAB Business Confidence Index for September: -13 pts (previous: -9 pts).
• United Kingdom: BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY for September: 1.0% (consensus: 0.8%; previous: 0.5%).

Corporate Earnings to Watch

• JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM): EPS forecast: $5.94.
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): EPS forecast: $2.53.
• UnitedHealth Group (UNH): EPS forecast: $4.12.
• The Goldman Sachs Group (GS): EPS forecast: $12.90.
• Wells Fargo & Company (WFC): EPS forecast: $1.85.
• Citigroup Inc. (C): EPS forecast: $2.66.
• Domino's Pizza Inc (DPZ): EPS forecast: $4.33.
• Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI): EPS forecast: $0.31.
• AZZ Inc. (AZZ): EPS forecast: $1.82.

Market Analysis

The US500 index has been on an upward trend since mid-September, reaching levels around 7800-7850 points. However, this rise is occurring without the support of financial sector leaders, which raises concerns about the sustainability of these gains. Major banks like JPMorgan and Citigroup have not confirmed new index highs, indicating a potential warning sign for investors.

Technical indicators suggest weakening momentum, with the MACD showing a shrinking histogram despite rising prices. This negative momentum divergence could lead to a market correction if earnings reports do not meet expectations or if guidance remains cautious.