Commodity Weekly Summary - October 23, 2026

Author: Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy

Key Points

• Positioning Drives Volatility: The unwinding of crowded trades across various asset classes is amplifying price movements, often overshadowing fundamental factors.
• Energy as the Inflationary Outlier: Rising tensions in the Middle East are supporting crude oil prices, while gas prices in Europe and Asia are increasing due to winter supply concerns.
• Contrasting Challenges for Metals: Gold and silver are experiencing technical selling despite lower bond yields, while copper is affected by US tariff uncertainties and inventory dynamics.
• Growth Concerns vs. Supply Risks: Weakness in iron ore reflects challenges in China's steel sector, while grains and soft commodities are facing bearish fundamentals amid speculative positioning.

Market Overview

The commodity markets have experienced a turbulent week, influenced by a risk-off sentiment across global equities, concerns regarding French government debt, and rising energy prices. The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index is poised for a modest weekly decline but remains up over 35% year-to-date, with energy commodities providing significant support.

Energy Sector

Crude oil prices have surged, with Brent crude exceeding USD 114 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Reports of potential military actions involving the US and Israel against Iran have added to market uncertainty. Despite these concerns, crude exports from the region have remained resilient, although the risk of supply disruptions looms large.

Natural gas prices in Europe have also risen sharply, with benchmark futures reaching a four-year high due to low storage levels and increased demand as winter approaches.

Precious Metals

Gold has seen a notable decline, driven by technical selling and long liquidation, despite a rally in US Treasuries. Spot gold prices dipped below USD 4,000, marking a significant weekly decline. Silver has faced even steeper losses, nearing an 11-month low, as speculative selling outweighs demand from long-term investors.

Copper Market

Copper prices are under pressure due to a significant imbalance in inventories and uncertainty surrounding US trade policy. Stockpiles have increased, particularly in US warehouses, raising concerns about future tariffs on refined copper imports.

Iron Ore and Agriculture

Iron ore prices have dropped to a two-year low, reflecting weak demand from China’s struggling construction sector. In agriculture, grains and soft commodities have faced losses due to bearish supply estimates and speculative long liquidations, particularly in wheat and sugar.

Outlook

The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the recent corrections in commodity prices are merely a result of speculative positioning or indicative of a broader deterioration in global demand. Energy prices remain supported by supply risks, while precious metals seek stability amidst technical challenges. The outlook for industrial commodities like copper and iron ore will hinge on trade policies and demand recovery in China.