Daily, weekly & monthly multi-asset research across US equities & ETFs, global indices, metals, forex, commodities, and crypto — subscription alerts by ticker & trading signal services
1. U.S. Stock Market and Earnings
Major U.S. stock indices have shown mixed performance recently. Despite some declines, strong earnings reports from major banks such as Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley have provided support to the market. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs reported better-than-expected Q2 profits, while Citigroup's shares rose over 3% following strong earnings. However, some financial stocks, especially credit card issuers like JPMorgan, faced pressure due to proposed regulatory changes on interest rates.
The technology sector has experienced pressure, notably after disappointing earnings from semiconductor equipment maker ASML, which led to a 10% drop in its stock. Conversely, Nvidia's stock surged due to favorable export license news to China. Overall, the Nasdaq showed slight gains while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones experienced modest declines.
2. Inflation and Economic Indicators
U.S. inflation data remains a key focus. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June rose to 2.7% year-over-year, the highest since February, with core CPI also increasing slightly. Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in below expectations, indicating some easing of inflationary pressures. Despite tariffs imposed by the U.S., inflation has not yet been significantly impacted, and customs revenues remain strong.
Retail sales for June rose by 0.6%, surpassing forecasts, and new unemployment claims fell unexpectedly, signaling a resilient labor market. Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in the near term have slightly decreased, with the Fed likely to maintain current rates in the upcoming meetings.
3. Federal Reserve and Regulatory Environment
The Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, including a criminal investigation into Chairman Jerome Powell related to the central bank's headquarters renovation and statements to Congress. Despite this, the Fed is expected to pause interest rate cuts, with some probability of cuts later in the year. Former Fed member Kevin Warsh has called for a leadership change, criticizing the current data-dependent approach.
President Trump's proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% for one year has caused significant market reactions, with credit card company stocks like Visa and Mastercard declining sharply. Analysts note that such a cap would require Congressional approval and face legal challenges.
4. Commodities and Precious Metals
Gold and silver prices have surged to record highs amid geopolitical tensions and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts. Gold surpassed $4,600 per ounce, while silver reached near $86 per ounce. Oil prices have been volatile, with crude futures rising due to concerns over Iranian supply disruptions and geopolitical risks, despite expectations of increased supply from Venezuela.
Natural gas futures have risen above $3.36, supported by increased LNG exports and hot weather forecasts driving electricity demand. However, some caution remains due to inventory levels and production increases.
5. Currency and Bond Markets
The U.S. dollar index has experienced fluctuations, initially falling but rebounding to close higher. The Japanese yen has weakened to its lowest level against the dollar since July 2024. The British pound remains relatively strong despite inflation concerns. U.S. Treasury yields have declined for short-term notes, with the 2-year yield at 3.52% and the 10-year at 4.17%, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
UK bonds have shown signs of recovery, and the FTSE 100 index outperformed European peers due to limited tech exposure.
6. Cryptocurrency Market Developments
Bitcoin has experienced volatility, pulling back from recent highs around $123,000 to about $117,000 amid cooling sentiment. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs remain strong, with significant monthly inflows reported.
XRP surged to a record high of $3.60 following bipartisan support in the U.S. Congress for crypto reform legislation, including the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act, which enhance regulatory clarity and oversight. The SEC is expected to vote on dropping its appeal against Ripple, potentially clearing the way for XRP-spot ETFs. Market analysts predict XRP ETFs could outperform those of Ethereum and Solana due to legal clarity and Ripple's global presence.
7. Global Economic and Political News
China reported strong GDP and industrial production figures, though retail sales were slightly below expectations. The European Union is preparing countermeasures against U.S. tariffs, targeting imports such as Boeing planes and bourbon, which could impact Eurozone GDP.
French stocks have reached record highs despite budgetary pressures and political uncertainty, including calls for a snap election. President Trump announced potential trade deals with Indonesia and others, aiming to reduce tariffs and increase U.S. exports.
8. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy
Market participants are advised to remain cautious amid ongoing volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, regulatory developments, and economic data releases. The Investment Policy Committee at Edward Jones recommends a globally diversified portfolio with a focus on quality and long-term growth, favoring equities over bonds given current opportunities.
Technical analysis suggests continued bullish momentum for precious metals and cautious optimism for equities, while traders should monitor key economic indicators and earnings reports closely.
Equity Markets
Global equity markets started 2026 at record highs, with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time levels around 6,900-6,950 points and the Dow Jones surpassing 49,000 points. However, recent trading sessions have seen some profit-taking and corrections, particularly in technology and financial sectors, amid mixed earnings reports and inflation data.
- S&P 500 Forecasts: Analysts project year-end targets ranging from 6,867 to 8,100 points, reflecting a broad range of optimism and caution.
- Sector Rotation: There is a notable rotation from AI and high-growth tech stocks towards sectors like energy, defense, and financials, supported by increased defense budgets and infrastructure spending.
- Risks: Elevated valuations, Federal Reserve policy uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions remain key downside risks.
Fixed Income and Interest Rates
Bond markets show mixed signals with US Treasury yields fluctuating amid expectations of limited Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. The unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, influencing cautious Fed policy outlooks.
- Markets currently price in a 10-17% chance of a Fed rate cut in January, with 1-2 cuts expected over the year.
- Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) yields have surged, reflecting concerns over Japan’s fiscal outlook and potential snap elections.
Commodities and Precious Metals
Precious metals have experienced significant gains, driven by geopolitical tensions, monetary policy uncertainty, and anti-fiat sentiment.
- Gold: Prices have surged to record highs above $4,600 per ounce, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts, global central bank purchases (notably China), and safe-haven demand amid geopolitical risks involving the US, Iran, Ukraine, and China-Taiwan tensions.
- Silver: Trading near $80-$85 per ounce, silver benefits from both industrial demand and speculative interest, with forecasts ranging widely due to supply and demand uncertainties.
- Crude Oil: WTI prices have declined about 20% in 2025, currently trading around $57-$62 per barrel. OPEC+ maintains production freezes, but geopolitical developments, including US intervention in Venezuela, add volatility.
Foreign Exchange and Currency Markets
The US dollar has shown volatility influenced by political pressures on the Federal Reserve and mixed economic data.
- USD Index (DXY): Recently strengthened to near 99 but faces downside risks if economic data weakens.
- EUR/USD: Trading below 1.1650 with bearish technical signals; potential support near 1.1600.
- USD/JPY: Bullish momentum with targets near 160, driven by rising Japanese bond yields and political uncertainty ahead of possible snap elections.
- Commodity-linked currencies: Mixed performance reflecting commodity price volatility and global growth concerns.
Cryptocurrency Market
Cryptocurrencies remain volatile but show signs of selective strength.
- Bitcoin: Trading around $90,000, currently consolidating after a significant correction from its all-time high.
- Monero: Surged over 30% recently, breaking out of a multi-year consolidation with bullish technical patterns suggesting potential for substantial gains.
- Market Sentiment: Mixed, with some altcoins showing resilience amid broader market caution.
Macroeconomic Factors and Policy Outlook
Macroeconomic conditions are shaped by a complex interplay of fiscal policy, monetary policy, and geopolitical developments.
- Federal Reserve: Facing political pressure, including investigations into Chair Powell, the Fed is expected to be cautious with rate cuts, balancing inflation control and growth support.
- US Labor Market: Slowing payroll growth and rising unemployment suggest a cooling economy, influencing Fed policy expectations.
- Geopolitical Risks: Conflicts and tensions in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Asia are driving safe-haven flows and impacting commodity markets.
- Investment Themes: Transition from indiscriminate AI stock buying to disciplined, fundamentals-based investing; increased focus on real assets, infrastructure, energy transition, and regional diversification.
Summary and Outlook
The current market environment is characterized by record equity highs tempered by selective profit-taking, strong precious metals performance, and cautious fixed income markets. Investors face a landscape shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, evolving monetary policy, and shifting sector leadership. A disciplined, diversified approach focusing on quality fundamentals, real assets, and regional opportunities is advised to navigate the complexities of 2026.
Market Overview
On January 14, 2026, US stock futures extended losses amid concerns over the financial sector following mixed earnings results, particularly from JPMorgan Chase. The market is cautious ahead of key economic data releases including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales for November. Inflation data for December showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, aligning with expectations and suggesting the Federal Reserve may hold interest rates steady in the near term.
Geopolitical tensions have risen due to President Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on countries maintaining business ties with Iran, adding uncertainty to trade relations and impacting market sentiment. The USD/JPY currency pair approached 160, reflecting a weaker yen amid political uncertainty in Japan and fiscal stimulus plans by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
Meanwhile, positive trade data from China, with a 6.6% year-on-year increase in exports for December, has provided some optimism for global economic growth.
Key Market Indices and Sector Performance
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Fell by 0.8% to 49,191.99, pressured by financial stocks and credit card issuers facing regulatory concerns.
- S&P 500: Declined by 0.2% to 6,963.74, with mixed sector performance.
- Nasdaq Composite: Slightly down by 0.1% to 23,709.87, with technology stocks showing resilience amid AI optimism.
- Consumer Discretionary and Materials: Sectors under pressure, with losses between 1.2% and 2.0%, impacted by inflation and tariffs.
- Defense Sector: Gained strength following announcements of increased defense budgets.
Corporate Earnings Highlights
- JPMorgan Chase: Reported Q4 earnings of $5.23 per share, beating estimates despite a one-time charge related to a credit card partnership with Apple.
- Delta Airlines: Forecasted strong earnings growth for 2026 but saw a 4% decline in shares due to mixed results.
- Intel and AMD: Received analyst upgrades, driven by expectations of a memory supercycle and increased data center demand.
- BioMarin Pharmaceutical and Revvity: Announced positive executive changes and revenue projections.
Currency and Commodities
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) showed resilience, rising slightly to 99.15, supported by steady inflation data and diminished expectations for immediate Fed rate cuts. The EUR/USD pair weakened to 1.1641, while the USD/JPY pair surged to near 160, the highest since July 2024, due to yen weakness amid Japanese political uncertainty.
Gold prices retreated slightly from record highs, trading around $4,587.67 per ounce, as geopolitical tensions and inflation data continue to influence safe-haven demand. Silver is also maintaining a bullish trend. Oil prices surged over 2% driven by concerns over potential disruptions in Iranian crude exports, despite expectations of increased supply from Venezuela.
Fixed Income and Bonds
US Treasury yields have risen, with the 30-year bond showing mixed technical signals but a short-term bearish bias in trading cycles. The 10-year and 5-year bonds also exhibit mixed technical indicators, reflecting market uncertainty about future interest rate moves. The short-term trading bias for the 2-year bond is bearish, while the overall sentiment for longer maturities remains cautious.
Upcoming Economic Events
- Producer Price Index (PPI) for December, expected year-on-year increase of 2.6%.
- Retail Sales for November, anticipated to rebound with a 0.4% growth rate.
- Federal Reserve Beige Book release, providing insights into economic activity, employment, and inflation trends.
- US Existing Home Sales for December and EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change.
Market Outlook
The US market outlook remains cautiously bullish in the medium term, supported by a resilient economy, dovish Federal Reserve expectations, and strong corporate earnings. However, risks persist from geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and potential regulatory impacts on financial stocks. Technology and AI sectors continue to be growth drivers, while defensive sectors like healthcare and defense show strength amid uncertainty.
Investors are advised to monitor upcoming economic data releases and geopolitical developments closely, as these will likely influence market direction and volatility in the near term.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
JPMorgan reported earnings with a 7.39% positive EPS surprise and 0.23% positive sales surprise, showing an 8.73% EPS growth and 7.10% sales growth year-over-year. Despite this, the stock dropped nearly 2% due to broader financial sector weakness.
Bank of New York Mellon (BK)
Reported a 5.58% positive EPS surprise and 1.21% positive sales surprise, with quarterly EPS growth of 20.9% and sales growth of 6.90%.
Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC)
These banks are scheduled to report earnings today, with expectations for continued strong performance in the financial sector.
ASML Holding NV (ASML)
Shares fell over 8.2% despite beating Q2 expectations, due to cautious 2026 growth outlook amid macroeconomic uncertainties and U.S. tariffs impacting customer sentiment.
Bakkafrost (BAKKA)
Shares plunged 15% after a significant Q2 earnings miss, with operational EBIT far below consensus, leading to expected EPS cuts for 2025.
Fuchs Petrolub (FPE)
Experienced a 13.25% drop following a Q2 EBIT miss and downward revision of full-year outlook.
Renault (RNO)
Stock fell up to 18% after lowering 2025 margin and cash flow outlook and appointing a new interim CEO amid challenges in demand and competition.
Sanofi (SNY)
Shares rose 0.8% after receiving FDA fast track designation for a gene therapy targeting geographic atrophy.
Stellantis (STLA)
Announced plans to halt investment in its hydrogen joint venture by 2026, causing a 3.2% decline in stock price.
Charles Schwab (SCHW)
Shares surged nearly 4% premarket after Q2 earnings beat expectations, with adjusted EPS of $1.14 surpassing estimates.
Netflix (NFLX)
Set to release Q2 earnings after market close. Revenue expected to hit a record $11.06 billion, with EPS estimated at $7.09. Stock has declined 6% from recent highs amid high valuation concerns.
Market Overview
U.S. equities declined modestly with the S&P 500 down 0.2%, influenced by financial sector weakness. Treasury yields fell, gold prices slightly decreased, and oil prices rose to a two-month high amid geopolitical tensions. Inflation data showed easing core inflation at 0.2% month-over-month.
Economic Data & Outlook
Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in below expectations. Retail sales and unemployment claims data are awaited. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady with a low chance of cuts in the near term. Market volatility remains elevated due to geopolitical and economic uncertainties.